The rapid socio-economic changes in the recent years suggest that the pace of change will accelerate further over the next 10-20 years, with the most important factor being the leapfrogging transformation of technology. Forecasts tend to agree on the main points of the expected changes (see e.g. Pérez & González 2024; European Commission 2022) and can be outlined in three main groups; each of them strongly influences the range of skills and competences that will be needed in the future.
Technological changes. Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation will play a central role, will be increasingly widespread and could automate a significant part of jobs, especially repetitive tasks (but also increasingly complex tasks). In this context, the interaction between humans and machines will not only become a key part of work processes but will also be an essential factor in everyday life. Further advances in computing, with the advent of quantum computers, will enable faster modelling and solving of particularly complex problems, revolutionising data processing and encryption. Improved communication technologies (e.g. the expected 6G networks) will enable even faster data transmission, the Internet of Things (IoT) will continue to expand, and basic everyday objects will become “smart”. These technologies will ensure the development of additional processes, such as biotechnology, gene editing (genome engineering), medicine, energy and – in response to growing environmental problems – environmental technologies are rapidly changing.
Economic changes. New industries and business models are emerging that rely heavily on AI-based capabilities and services. Environmental challenges are driving the transformation of the economy towards sustainability. Companies need to pay more and more attention to environmental, social and governance (ESG) aspects. Circular economy models may come to the fore. In services, subscription models will become dominant. In finance, decentralisation is expected, and digital currencies may be introduced at government level. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based solutions could transform the financial system, requiring individuals to acquire new financial skills.
Social changes. Demographic changes will primarily result in ageing societies, which will face major challenges in transforming pension systems and health care; not least, intergenerational differences and relationships will be the main direction of expansion of social capabilities. Urbanisation will continue to increase and smart cities with digital infrastructure will emerge. Remote working and the extensive digital transformation of the work environment will be key drivers in the transformation of the labour market. The linear career model will be replaced by multiple career changes, which may even lead to radical lifestyle changes. The gig economy may become more and more prevalent: employment contracts are for a single project, with a significant part of the work done online; labour is displayed on online marketplaces. Social inequalities may increase as automation and technological development can widen economic gaps, although digitalisation can help widen access to education and cultural goods. As cultures blend and intercultural relations expand, new challenges and opportunities will arise, which could lead to a reshaping of identity and community belonging.
The transformation of the three areas outlined above will determine what skills will be needed in the future. Today’s schools have a responsibility to prepare children for these challenges and to provide them with the skills they will need in the future. To this end, recommendations have been formulated which set out in a systematic way the areas to be developed. The UNESCO recommendations aim to promote an adaptive society and provide a general description of future literacy. Complexity and diversity, due to the complexity of social and technological processes, are primary considerations (Miller, 2018; UNESCO, 2019; 2020). The recommendations are also useful as a framework that offers key concepts and focal points for planning future pedagogical tasks.
Transversal skills are given a prominent place in the set of skills needed for the future. The UNESCO recommendation divides them into six main groups: media literacy, intrapersonal skills, interpersonal skills, critical and innovative thinking, global citizenship, and a group of skills not classified in the former (Care & Luo, 2016). The framework also identifies priority areas for school development.
In 2020, the European Union established the Skills Lab, which continuously assesses the skills needed to enable a rapid response to labour market needs (European Training Foundation 2020). The Skills Lab envisages that in the future, a high level of creativity, innovation, experimentation and innovation will be needed to meet challenges; these skills also rely heavily on collective intelligence. The society of the future will be characterised by a diversity of its members (cultural complexity will be combined with diversity of mindsets and literacies) and the need for cooperative action. The EU has designated 2023 as the European Year of Capacities, declaring that a future-oriented society will foster the development of skills and competences that will be useful for its members in the long term (European Union, 2023; Brandi et al., 2023). To this end, the EU will continue to coordinate research on the study of competences and adapt the recommendations of the framework of competences.
Also in response to the needs of the labour market, the European Commission has developed the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO; European Commission, 2020) framework, which attempts to standardise the conceptual framework of skills required for different occupations and professions by defining skills in a table of equivalence, creating a system of categories for classification and describing the relationships between skills. The system is continuously updated.
In addition to the formal frameworks, several other proposals have been made to define the skills needed for the future. Kotsiou et al (2022), after examining almost 100 frameworks of future skills, classify the skills that need to be focused on in a future-oriented education into nine metacategories: higher-order thinking skills, dialogical skills, digital and STEM literacy, values, self-management, lifelong learning, entrepreneurship, leadership and resilience. It is striking that some of the skills in the meta-categories are more from the soft skills domain and are areas that again focus more on the labour market and personal career development. It is also worth noting the substantial overlap between the frameworks: each considers expected diversity and rapid technological change.
The general focus of the vision for the future is therefore mostly on changes in the labour market, but equally important is the need to develop a range of skills to enable children of school age to develop a mental and emotional balance in adulthood, to form an identity capable of self-actualisation, to gain personal fulfilment, and to lead a balanced and successful life. Some of the hypothesised changes are also relevant in this area.
Given that digitalisation is expected to extend to all aspects of everyday life, digital skills will play an important role in personal life too. Artificial intelligence will be needed in the home, in transport, in administration and in the organisation of everyday life activities. Financial management will require the proper handling of digital currencies and the blockchain economy. The problem of cybersecurity will extend beyond the handling of personal data to all aspects of social and personal life.
The ability to think critically can play a role in the whole range of personal choices, as the sheer volume of information will make it increasingly difficult to filter out misleading information. The expected increase in stressors will require skills of resilience and mindfulness. In this context, the increasing complexity of future societies and the fluidity of change make the development of adaptability an essential objective: the ability to adapt quickly and to acquire new knowledge and skills. It is also necessary to be able to maintain the continuity of the identity, which can become increasingly difficult with frequent career changes and the rise of the gig economy.
The technological transformation of social relationships and communication also requires the development of individuals’ social and communication skills. Advances in artificial intelligence may lead to the emergence of artificial agents, virtual peers, the management of which must be integrated into the social skills. In cooperative work, and even in social interaction, it will be necessary to communicate with both human and artificial peers. This may also require the development of empathic skills and emotional regulation, perhaps in a new form.
All three areas of expected change – technological, economic, social – are therefore relevant to the personal well-being of the individual. Of course, future predictions can never be taken for granted; in most cases, assumptions are based on an extension of current trends. But it is possible to identify with sufficient certainty the skills that will be needed in the future to achieve a balanced, healthy life, in which the individual can fulfil her or his potential.